Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 2.978534 3.486961 4.050953 4.722281 5.498931 6.368510 7.415338
2025-11-23 2.114247 2.770718 3.578859 4.643797 6.006998 7.690082 9.922267
2025-11-30 1.686287 2.425752 3.417365 4.837004 6.808939 9.441697 13.212511
2025-12-07 1.337629 2.084869 3.163046 4.819351 7.284231 10.797985 16.163397
2025-12-14 1.086996 1.818473 2.944046 4.782983 7.688373 12.070843 19.140639
2025-12-21 0.909415 1.621455 2.782172 4.785585 8.123279 13.415042 22.373469
2025-12-28 0.839713 1.583635 2.859320 5.169452 9.199867 15.871506 27.645405
2026-01-04 0.738001 1.468561 2.783264 5.275025 9.815957 17.643789 32.006988
2026-01-11 0.654943 1.370656 2.718150 5.382876 10.439504 19.489391 36.702052
2026-01-18 0.575223 1.263483 2.616500 5.402701 10.896841 21.084696 41.129000
2026-01-25 0.500136 1.151210 2.485615 5.342580 11.187358 22.398502 45.178352
2026-02-01 0.415682 1.002903 2.257763 5.050900 10.978017 22.734902 47.396523
2026-02-08 0.356947 0.902781 2.118906 4.932656 11.124224 23.819783 51.299730
2026-02-15 0.311588 0.825247 2.017198 4.880689 11.406997 25.223898 56.048028
2026-02-22 0.290052 0.801360 2.032774 5.094128 12.297421 27.995313 63.983266
2026-03-01 0.257336 0.742403 1.955796 5.079352 12.670614 29.705350 69.846869
2026-03-08 0.227919 0.686024 1.875264 5.042420 12.985288 31.321408 75.692786
2026-03-15 0.204349 0.640787 1.814957 5.045611 13.394949 33.197667 82.345227
2026-03-22 0.200837 0.652392 1.905085 5.449482 14.848038 37.659046 95.503834
2026-03-29 0.185323 0.625139 1.885850 5.560561 15.573849 40.476873 105.077682
2026-04-05 0.171455 0.600072 1.868478 5.673992 16.321217 43.432583 115.320595
2026-04-12 0.155934 0.566422 1.820776 5.694846 16.824192 45.838184 124.469944
2026-04-19 0.139632 0.526614 1.747971 5.631630 17.087935 47.665287 132.359291